Question: Extreme Weather

Comment on Extreme Weather

It is very helpful to me .thanks

B is not the answer because it's specific to the Gulf of Mexico? I thought Professor Brink was only referring to the Gulf of Mexico, though? How come B cancels out?
gmat-admin's picture

The two professors are debating whether the PLANET will experience a wave of extreme weather. In the first sentence, Professor Gelding says that the PLANET will not experience a wave of extreme weather.

Professor Brink cites the information about hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in order to refute Professor Gelding's assertion that the PLANET will not experience a wave of extreme weather.

Professor Brink's conclusion is about WORLDWIDE weather patterns, not about the weather in the Gulf of Mexico.

Since the argument is all about the PLANET, we need information that shows the relationship between the weather in the Gulf of Mexico's and weather on the planet.

Your tutorials are great and easy to understand . Thumps up to your work sir

Hi!
I have a question.
You said that if the answer to (E) is yes, then Professor Brink's opinion will be strengthened. But, I thought it will weaken his argument since it makes Professor Gelding's data work more persuasive. Could you explain it more detail?
gmat-admin's picture

Professor Gelding is saying that extreme weather events are NOT increasing.

Professor Brink uses data about hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico to refute Professor Gelding's claim that extreme weather events are NOT increasing.

IMPORTANT: Professor Brink's position depends largely on whether or not there's a link between hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and extreme global weather events in general.

So, if we answer YES to the question that choice E poses, then there IS a link between hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and extreme weather events in general. This will strengthen Professor Brink's position.

Conversely, if we answer NO to the question that choice E poses, then there is NO link between hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and extreme weather events in general. This weakens Professor Brink's position.

I got the question right, but I'm still a bit confused on what evaluate the conclusion questions are asking of me. Can you elaborate a little more in simpler terms?
gmat-admin's picture

The following video explains what this question type is all about: https://www.gmatprepnow.com/module/gmat-critical-reasoning/video/1144

Please let me know if that helps.

Cheers,
Brent

What level of question is this one?
gmat-admin's picture

I'd place its difficulty level at 550 to 600.

Hi Brent,

Why answering choice D is not helping us to evaluate the conclusion.

Let's say that the answer is 25(6+19), then I can say thtat the number was increasing and that the only phenomenon that constituted such change was "huricane"

What do you think?
gmat-admin's picture

Professor Brink's uses Category 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico to support the position that the next 100 years will bring MORE extreme weather events. We're told that there was a total of 25 such hurricanes in the past 100 years. The idea here is that the weather events in one part of the planet are indicative of weather events across the entire planet.

Notice that the Category 5 hurricanes that occur in the Gulf of Mexico may be just a SMALL SUBSET of extreme weather events across the entire planet.

So, knowing the number of of extreme weather events across the entire planet in the past 100 years won't help us unless we have other information, such as the number of extreme weather events in the 100 before that (i.e., from 1820 to 1920)

Does that help?

I think I understand what you mean. But just to clarify. Do you mean that by knowing how many extreme weather events occurred in the last 100 years doesn't help since we don't know whether Category 5 hurricanes that occur in the Gulf of Mexico are included in that figure?
E.g.

In the past 100 years 25, yet Category 5 hurricanes that occur in the Gulf of Mexico didn't contribute to that figure since they are not considered extreme weather events from the perspective of the entire planet?

Thank you in advance,
gmat-admin's picture

Your question: In the past 100 years 25, yet Category 5 hurricanes that occur in the Gulf of Mexico didn't contribute to that figure since they are not considered extreme weather events from the perspective of the entire planet?

No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying that Category 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico may be just a SMALL SUBSET of extreme weather events across the entire planet.

Let's say that the answer to question D is: In the past 100 years (from 1919 to 2019), there was a TOTAL of 10,000 extreme weather events across the planet (and 25 of those extreme weather events were Category 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico). Does this help us determine whether the rate of extreme weather events across the planet is increasing?
No. All we know is that we've seen an increase in Category 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in the past 100 years.

It could be the case that the rate of extreme weather events across the planet is actually decreasing (or remaining the same).
So, just knowing the number of extreme weather events across the planet in the past 100 years doesn't help us.

Does that help?

Cheers,
Brent

Hi Brent,

Thank you for the explanation. I understand what you mean.

Last question:

It is not just that D isn't a useful question to answer among all 5 answer choices, but it is simply not the most useful when evaluating Prof. Brink's conclusion. In other words, getting an answer to the E is more helpful for evaluation of the argument than D, since it doesn't matter how many extreme weather events occurred in the past 100 years when we don't know whether Category 5 hurricanes in the Gulf even count as extreme weather events. As far as I understand, if there were no E we would need to choose D since it is the next question to answer in terms of importance.

Am I right?

Thank you in advance,

gmat-admin's picture

That's correct. D is the 2nd best answer.

Hi Brent,

I just need to say that from such long discussions I learn the most.

You are doing an awesome job.
gmat-admin's picture

Thanks for that! I'm always happy to help!

Hi Brent,

You said when it comes to "Evaluate the Conclusion Questions" that "Our goal is not to find information that strengthens or weakens the argument, our goal is to find a question, which when answered helps to evaluate the conclusion."

Why then, when you are explaining why E is the correct choice "when it answered yes it strengthens and why it is answered no it weakens".

Thank you in advance,


gmat-admin's picture

My intent with that statement was to show this difference between this question type and strengthen/weaken questions.

For this question type, the answer choices don't provide any information. So, the answer choices ALONE cannot strengthen or weaken the argument. This is what I mean when I said "Our goal is not to find information that strengthens or weakens the argument"

What matters here is whether the ANSWER to each question posed in the answer choices will help us determine the validity of the conclusion.

E) Do the Category 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico that made landfall in the past 100 years represent extreme weather events in general?
This answer choice neither strengthens nor weakens the argument, since it doesn't provide any new information to add to the argument.
However, the ANSWER to this question does, indeed, help us determine the validity of the conclusion.

Does that help?

Hi Brent,

Now it is clear to me what you meant,

Thank you for your time,

Hi,

So far so good, but I'm worried about the timing. I got the right answers to most of those questions but it took me more than 5 mins each time (the time to read the passage, make sure the conclusion is right, read the answer choices and make a choice...). Any advice to go through those steps in the 2 mins time "allowed"?
gmat-admin's picture

Good question!
My standard response is "Content first, speed later"
That is, if it's still early in your prep, don't worry about timing. Fully understanding each concept is much more important.
Think of it as learning to play the piano. The first step is to learn which keys match up with the various notes and chords. Once that aspect is taken care of, THEN you can worry about timing.
The same applies to the GMAT.

If you're interested, I have a couple of articles related to timing on the GMAT:
- Making Friends with Time on the GMAT – Part I: http://www.gmatprepnow.com/articles/making-friends-time-gmat-%E2%80%93-p...
- Making Friends with Time on the GMAT – Part II: http://www.gmatprepnow.com/articles/making-friends-time-gmat-%E2%80%93-p...

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